14 – A Gingerbread Mystery: How Many Cookies Are in the Oven?

Authors of this question: Francesco Dolce & Adriano Fagiolini, Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Mobile & Intelligent Robots Panormus Laboratory (MIRPALab), Università di Palermo, Italy

Santa Claus is baking gingerbread cookies with his elves, but he can’t see how many cookies were placed in the oven last time because it’s closed and it has no window to see through it. He’d prefer not to open the oven, as that would cause a temperature drop, risking some cookies being improperly baked. How can Santa estimate the number of cookies already in the oven without opening it?

a. 🧝‍♂️🤔🕵️‍♂️ Ask one elf to recall how many cookies were on the tray. After all, it’s unlikely they’d lie—they wouldn’t sneak a cookie or two when no one is looking, would they?

b. 📊🧝‍♀️🍪 Ask each elf to recall how many cookies were on the tray, then calculate a weighted average based on each elf’s “trustworthiness”—a combination of their ability to accurately recall the number and their honesty when it comes to cookies.

c. 📚📈🔢 Use historical data about the average number of cookies per tray to estimate how many cookies the elves likely placed on the previous tray. After all, what could possibly go wrong with a little holiday baking math—especially with elves involved?

d. 🧪🔥📟 Model how the insertion of cookies affects the oven’s temperature and the rate at which it returns to the desired value set by the knob. Then, design a device that combines this model with the oven’s temperature logs to reverse-engineer how many cookies the elves added. It would be a perfect fusion of science and bakery!

e. 🍪🍪🍪 Simply load the next tray with as many cookies as possible to ensure there’s plenty to go around. After all, life’s too short for cookie regrets—especially with the elves threatening to strike if the cookie jar runs empty!

f. 🦌🌬️✨ Ask Rudolph to sniff the air and estimate how many cookies are in the oven by the smell. There must be a reason if he’s a holiday legend known for his incredible cookie-finding abilities.

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